Donald Trump decided to fire John Bolton and with one of the most “hawkish” and extreme points of view on Foreign Policy inside the White House out, the President has to regain confidence among his base. How can the GOP and the actual government deal with the lower confidence in terms of Foreign Policy?
JOHN BOLTON’S POINT OF VIEW
There is no doubt that most of the perspectives from Bolton were “a little bit extreme” for most of the closest advisors of the President (not only Pompeo, but Kushner too). According to The Hill: “Trump said Bolton had “set us back” and that the adviser had disagreed with the president on various national security issues”. That’s not all, the President itself said today: “So, John is somebody that I actually got along with very well. He made some very big mistakes,”. Interesting. Let’s take a look at Bolton’s perspective on most of the issues where he confronted Senior White House advisers.
NORTH KOREA: He did not like the idea of Kim Jong-Un being invited to the White House and he did not support the approach that Trump took on the DMZ meeting. For Bolton, this nation is a problem that can only be solved with war.
THE MIDDLE EAST: With Israel and the PA it is very easy: Bolton supports the idea of one state and at the same time an intense strategy over Iran, Hezbollah and Al-Assad in Syria. Here we have probably one of the biggest issues during the last days: Trump wanted to invite the Taliban (Trump sends confusing signals to his base by inviting the Taliban to Camp David) to the country while opening talks for an in-person meeting with Iran’s Rouhani. This was not accepted by Bolton.
VENEZUELA: Bolton almost succeeded in convincing Trump to intervene in Venezuela. The last attempt by the parallel and Democratic Government of Venezuela led by Guaidó to take down Maduro was pushed by the Pentagon. No one really knows is this affected Bolton, but the truth is that Trump was never fully convinced with the idea of engaging directly.
WHY TRUMP WILL NEED TO FIX THIS?
The strong base that supports Trump, his big core of almost 30% voters, are conservative and support full “American Engagement” in the world. The idea of China and Russia taking over some areas of the Middle East, Africa, and South America are not positive for Trump’s base. Some polls already show in at least 20 states Donald Trump losing with Biden, Warren and Harris with margins that go from 5% to 17%. This means that Trump is losing some independent voters and most of them are “libertarians” who can easily pick a “moderate democrat”. Bolton was probably not the best for the White House. But Trump’s behaviour when it comes to Foreign Policy (probably one of his strengths during his presidential campaign and first year in power) it is very erratic. Now he needs to reshape his team and show his base he can deliver.
Venezuela, Iran, The Taliban, the Arab-Israeli Conflict, North Korea, uprisings in Asia and Africa, the growth of al-Shabaab, the Hong Kong crisis, Trade War with China, Mexico’s unstable economy and its refugee crisis … This all has to be addressed by the West and Trump is looking … weak. Can the President show he has a strong and powerful team to approach the United States Foreign Policy to get results? Can this be a problem towards 2020 Elections? What do you think?
